Assessing Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstock Production Across a Gradient of Agricultural Management Systems in the U.S. Midwest

While biofuels are widely considered to be a part of the solution to high oil prices, a comprehensive assessment of the environmental sustainability of existing and future biofuel systems is needed to assess their utility in meeting U.S. energy and food needs without exacerbating environmental harm. The following questions guide this research: 1. What is the spatial extent and composition of agricultural management systems that exist in the U.S. Midwest? 2. How does sub-grid scale edaphic variation impact our estimation of poplar biomass productivity across a gradient of spatial scales in the U.S. Midwest? 3. How do location and management interactions impact yield gap analysis of cellulosic ethanol production in U.S. Midwest? In the first chapter, I developed an algorithm to identify representative crop rotations in the U.S. Midwest, using remotely sensed data; and used this information to detect pronounced shifts from grassland to monoculture cultivation in the U.S. Midwest. In the second chapter, a new algorithm is developed to reduce the computational burden of high resolution ecosystem modeling of poplar plantations in U.S. Midwest, with the results from the high resolution modeling being used to estimate the impact of averaging and discretization of soil properties on poplar yield estimates. In the third chapter, a novel yield gap analysis of cellulosic feedstocks on marginal lands in the U.S. Midwest is conducted to determine the management inputs needed to reach their yield potential in a sustainable manner. The significance of this research lies in providing a spatially explicit regional scale analysis of the tradeoffs between food and fuel production and providing an understanding of which biofuel crops should be grown where to maximize production while mitigating environmental damage

Analyzing the Knock-on Impacts of 2022 Floods on Rabi 2023 Using Remote Sensing and Field Surveys

While the world's attention is focused on immediate relief and rescue operations for the affectees of the current floods in Pakistan, knock-on effects are expected to play further havoc with the country's economy and food security in the coming months. Significant crop yield losses had already occurred for Winter (Rabi) 2021-22 due to a heatwave earlier in the year and estimates for the Summer (Kharif) 2022 crop damage due to flood inundation have already been determined to be very high. With the next sowing season already upon the flood affectees, there is a big question mark over the resumption of agricultural activity in disaster-struck districts. This study is aimed at analyzing the range of influences of the 2022 floods on the upcoming winter (Rabi) crop. Satellite-based remote sensing data, state-of-the-art Earth system models, and field observations will be leveraged to estimate the impacts of the flood on the resumption of agricultural activity in the most impacted districts of Southern Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan. The field surveys are conducted during multiple visits to the study area to maximize the monitoring of on-ground conditions and provide a larger validation dataset for the satellite-based inundation and crop classification maps. The project leverages on the expertise and previous experiences of the LUMS team in performing satellite-based land/crop classification, estimation of soil moisture levels for irrigation activity, and determining changes in land-use patterns for detecting key agricultural activities. Delays in the sowing of the winter crop and its effects on crop-yield were analyzed through this study

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing–based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes’ dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation—the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)—this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation

Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Information on historical land-cover change is important for understanding human impacts on the environment. Over the last decade, global models have characterized historical land-use changes, but few have been able to relate these changes with corresponding changes in land-cover. Utilizing the latest global land-use change data, we make several assumptions about the relationship between land-use and land-cover change, and evaluate each scenario with remote sensing data to identify optimal fit. The resulting transition rule can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models

Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: Evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000e2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies

Participation of older people in recreation movement anda sense of quality of life

An analysis concerns the level of the sense of quality of life among the people 60+. There has been shown the evaluation of sense of satisfaction with life on a global scale and in selected areas of quality of life among older people not participating in physical recreation at all and four weeks after taking up physical recreation. Test results: The vast majority of respondents after the participation in recreation is happy with their physical shape, contact with friends, relationships with family and peace of mind. Adoption of physical activity impact on the perception of the ability to perform the duties of everyday life and consciousness of energy level and the will to manage their own lives, including leisure activities according to their own tastes. Conclusion of the study: Promotion of various forms of physical activities among the elderly can contribute to improvement of their quality of life

Disturbance distance: quantifying forests' vulnerability to disturbance under current and future conditions

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, are critical determinants of forest structure, function, and distribution. The vulnerability of forests to potential changes in disturbance rates remains largely unknown. Here, we developed a framework for quantifying and mapping the vulnerability of forests to changes in disturbance rates. By comparing recent estimates of observed forest disturbance rates over a sample of contiguous US forests to modeled rates of disturbance resulting in forest loss, a novel index of vulnerability, Disturbance Distance, was produced. Sample results indicate that 20% of current US forestland could be lost if disturbance rates were to double, with southwestern forests showing highest vulnerability. Under a future climate scenario, the majority of US forests showed capabilities of withstanding higher rates of disturbance then under the current climate scenario, which may buffer some impacts of intensified forest disturbanceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Harmonization of global land-use change and management for the period 850-2100 (LUH2) for CMPIP6

Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25◦ × 0.25◦) over a longer time domain (850-2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon-climate system. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5°C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity)